India Overtakes China as the Most Populous Country in 2023

(January 2022) According to the 2022 UN World Population Prospects India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country in 2023.

• The birth rate in China was reduced by strict family-planning rules—the so-called one-child policy introduced in 1980. The easing of birth control since 2013 have not changed the downward demographic trend. Today the population of China is declining. Number of working age population (15-64-year olds) is not growing since 2015 and will start to decline after 2027. By 2050 China’s population will be 8% smaller than it is now.
• The expected decline in working age population threatens to end China’s role as the world’s factory. With the declining working age population the cost of labor force will start to increase making labor intensive manufacturing industries unprofitable. Simultaneously the increase in old age population will put additional burden on government finance in china to support non-working age population.
• Population of India continues to grow. According to the UN estimates It is expected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2064, when it will be nearly 50% larger than that of China. India working-age population will increase by 136 million people between now and 2050.