The population of China currently exceeds the population of India by approximately 70 million, according to estimates from the United Nations. The UN's World Population Prospects report puts the population of China at 1.38 billion, compared to 1.31 billion for India. Other sources' estimates of current population range from 1.37 to 1.40 billion for China and from 1.28 to 1.31 billion for India.
Just as current population estimates differ, so do forecasts as to when the difference in the population between the two countries will level off.
To compare projections from different sources in detail, visit our World in 2020 page.
What are the leading international institutions expecting in the years ahead for the world’s economies? How will demographic profiles shift by world region? Which countries are at the precipice of becoming world-scale natural resource producers? Explore global forecasts with Knoema!
Global expectations that the Indian population will surpass that of China stem from these two countries belonging to different fertility groups. China is considered to be a "low fertility" country while India is generally considered an "intermediate fertility" country. India, like China, has already experienced a substantial decline in fertility as a result of the implementation of its National Family Planning Program in 1952, but the program did not lead to the same dramatic population changes as experienced under China's One-Child Policy. Other factors behind the anticipated rapid population growth in India are high illiteracy and poverty rates, immigration from Bangladesh and Nepal, and declining mortality rates.
These same factors have already led India to outpace China in terms of total contribution to world population growth. During the period 2010-2015, the population of India increased by 16 million - the highest contribution of any country, accounting for 19% of the global population increase - while the population of China grew by 7 million.
India is expected to continue to lead globally in contribution to population growth through 2050, followed by Nigeria. Various international agencies estimate that India's current growth rate is in the range of 1.2 to 1.32 percent, while China's is lower at about 0.46 to 0.56 percent. And although India's population growth rate is continuously declining - expected to drop below 1% by 2024 and below 0% threshold by 2069 - it is not expected to drop below China's growth rate during the next 100 years, virtually ensuring India's status as the world population leader for some time to come.
Now, after more than three decades, the Chinese government is ending its controversial one-child policy. Originally implemented in 1980 to curb its rapid population growth, China’s one-child policy has witnessed a fertility rate decline from 2.7 births per woman in 1981 to 1.6 births in 2015. Those who backed the one-child policy claimed it led to 300 million fewer births and lifted 200-400 million people out of poverty. Yet, the one-child policy has taken a toll, with more than 336 million abortions and 222 million sterilizations having since taken place. Gender imbalance in China, with 115.9 boys born to every 100 girls in 2014, has led...
What is the population of China? The exact answer to this question can be given only on the basis of census data. Population census in China is conducted each 10 years, so the latest one (the sixth) was held in the year 2010. According to it the population in China was 1.34 billion. To get an idea of how many people live in China today, one must rely on estimates. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides one such estimate, pursuant to which the population of China in 2015 was 1.376 billion, a total population increase of 2.7 percent from 2010 or an average annual population growth rate of 0.5 percent. Though...
Last year the government of China formally adopted the One Belt One Road Initiative to improve the transport and trading links between China and Eurasian and African countries. A modern day version of the Silk Road network of trade routes between East and West circa 207 BCE, One Belt One Road (aka Belt and Road Initiative or just BRI) will be the largest investment initiative in history. BRI will span more than 68 countries and including an estimated $8 trillion of investment in transportation networks, energy production, and telecommunications infrastructure. The majority of the investment will be financed by Chinese-issued debt. Given the...