Africa in Focus: Demographics Projections

According to the UN DESA baseline scenario, the median age of the African population is projected to increase from 19.35 years in 2015 to 35.21 years in 2100. The highest growth of the median age of the population has been observed in two African regions since 1980-s: Southern Africa and Northern Africa. 

Population pyramid built for Africa in 2015 can be attributed to the expansive type of the pyramid which means that African countries are in the first stage of the demographic transition: expanding. This stage is characterized by the high birth rate, rapid fall in each upward age group due to high death rates and short life expectancy. Compared to Africa, more developed regions of the world correspond to the constrictive pyramid being in the third stage of the demographic transition with the decline of the birth rate and the death rate, slowing of the natural increase.

Forecasts on the world population in the year 2100 provide the framework for demographic change expectations. Population pyramid of African countries is expected to correspond to the expanding type moving to the next stage of the demographic transition. More developed regions of the world are predicted to complete the demographic transition being in stage four characterized by low birth rate, low death rate, falling and then stable natural increase. The world population, in general, will correspond to the same stage. 

The African countries with the highest life expectancy at birth became Réunion, Mayotte and Algeria with 80.1, 80 and 76 years in 2015. Mayotte and Réunion are expected to remain the leaders in the life expectancy value in 2100 (92 years). Algeria will be replaced by Morocco with the life expectancy at birth equal to 89 years in 2100.

Africa in Focus:  Overview | Population Prospects | Population Density | Demographics | GDP per capita | Education