United States: Economic Rebound Benefiting Biden

(24 July 2020)  As has been extensively covered major media channels, US President Trump has strongly encouraged US state governors to lift anti-covid lockdowns and re-open their states as soon as possible to help the US economy. A growing economy, more jobs, and higher wages are not only positive for the individual US worker but could be strong incentives in favor of Trump's reelection. 

 

Data shows, however, that even though restrictions have been lifted or relaxed and the economy has started to recover, Republicans have not been rewarded with a boost in the polls.

  • Examining the relationship between political poll results and economic activity represented by mobility index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, we found that in seven of the eight swing states, as defined by FiveThirtyEight, rebounding economic activity correlates positively with a growth of the share of voters supporting Biden.
  • In states where economic activity is decelerating, including Wisconsin, the opposite is true, and Trump's popularity is strengthening. 
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